Trial Run, Not Final Judged Result

Heat-Risk Stress Test

Which neighbourhoods in the focus city become most heat-risk exposed under a +3 C hotter-future stress test, and where do social vulnerabilities make that heat most dangerous?

This page rehearses the workflow for the SUEWS Community Hackathon: configure a neighbourhood, run SUEWS for a hot period, interpret the energy balance, and state exactly where the hazard-to-risk bridge is still incomplete.

SUEWS/SuPy 2026.6.5 KCL London sample weather UNDRR-style risk bridge Farrah Jasmine Dingal
01 / Practice Case

What I Modelled

The real focus-city data arrives on the hackathon day. This trial uses a simplified London neighbourhood so I can practise the full modelling and storytelling workflow before the judged event.

Urban Form

40% buildings at 12 m height, plus 35% paved streets, pavements, and car parks.

Green Cover

The remaining 25% is split into 15% street trees and 10% small gardens or grass.

Weather

The simulation uses bundled KCL London 2012 sample forcing, clipped to the hot week of 14-21 August 2012.

02 / Method

Reproducible Workflow

The repository keeps the configuration, provenance, diagnostics, output, figure, and this page together, so the trial run can be checked rather than taken on trust.

Initialise

Started from the simple urban SUEWS template.

Configure

Changed land cover, building height, and roughness assumptions.

Check

Validated the setup: zero validation errors and 168 hourly records.

03 / Findings

Where the Heat Went

During sunny hours, the model estimated roughly 285 W m-2 of available energy from net radiation plus human-made heat. Most of it heated the air or charged the urban fabric.

Dense Fabric, Small Evaporation Share

With 75% built or paved surface, vegetation cooling is present but not dominant.

Heat to Air, QH66%
Stored Heat, QS24%
Evaporation Cooling, QE10%
QuantityTrial ResultInterpretation
Surface Temperature Peak37.7 CHard surfaces warm strongly during the hottest periods.
Near-Surface Air Temperature Peak30.7 CAir heating is substantial but lower than surface heating.
Night-Time Storage HeatNegative QSBuilt and paved surfaces release stored heat after sunset.
Main Data Check0% missing QH/QE/QNThe plotted heat-flow outputs are complete.
Figure showing hourly heat flows, sunny-hour energy split, and modelled air and surface temperatures for the SUEWS hot-week trial.

Figure: Surface Energy Balance for One Week. The top panel shows hourly heat flows through the hot week. The lower-left panel simplifies the sunny-hour energy split. The lower-right panel shows modelled air and surface temperatures.

04 / UNDRR Bridge

From Hazard to People

The hackathon asks us to translate SUEWS heat hazard into a socio-economic heat-risk indicator drawn from the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) metrics framework. This trial makes that bridge explicit.

Hazard From SUEWS

SUEWS can estimate physical heat metrics: dangerous-heat hours, night-time heat retention, surface energy balance, and changes under +3 C forcing.

UNDRR-Style Vulnerability

The vulnerability layer must come from the organiser-provided UNDRR-style indicators, not from invented variables in this London sample run.

Risk Priority

The highest concern is where hotter-future hazard and social vulnerability overlap in the same neighbourhoods.

Bridge StepWhat It MeansWhere It Can Break
Physical Heat HazardUse SUEWS outputs to compare neighbourhood heat exposure under baseline and +3 C stress-test weather.SUEWS does not identify who is socially vulnerable; it models the urban climate.
UNDRR-Style IndicatorUse the provided socio-economic framework to represent exposure, vulnerability, and risk-relevant conditions.I should follow the provided indicators exactly and avoid adding unsupported variables.
Heat-Risk RankingRank neighbourhoods where physical heat and vulnerability overlap most strongly.The final page must say whether each priority is driven by hazard, vulnerability, or both.

Honest limitation: this trial does not include the focus-city dataset, the +3 C forcing, or the UNDRR-style vulnerability indicator. It is a workflow rehearsal and a forum-ready request for feedback on how to make the hazard-to-risk bridge credible.

05 / Criteria

Judging Checklist

I mapped the trial page to the hackathon criteria so the final version can be built deliberately rather than rushed.

Scientific Soundness

Reproducible SUEWS run, changed land cover, stated assumptions, validation checks, figure, and citation.

Final version needs focus-city data, all neighbourhoods, and expert review of warnings.

Policy Relevance and Honest Bridging

Separates physical heat hazard from social vulnerability and names the UNDRR-style bridge.

Final version needs the provided risk indicator and a clear account of where it holds or breaks.

Professional Contribution

This page is structured as a transparent forum post with caveats and questions for feedback.

Final version should reflect community feedback and cite what changed because of it.

Presentation Quality

The page has one question, short method, headline result, figure, caveats, and next step.

Final version needs a ranked focus-city result visible early on the page.

Innovation and AI Collaboration

The assistant helped configure, run, diagnose, visualise, and translate SUEWS results.

Final version should export the transcript and preserve prompts, checks, failures, corrections, and decisions.

06 / AI Collaboration

How I Will Work Better With the Assistant

For the judged version, I should treat the assistant as a modelling partner that must show its working, not just a page-writing tool.

Ask for Assumptions First

Before running anything: list what is known, what is assumed, and which assumptions need expert confirmation.

Use Paired Runs

Run baseline and hotter-future cases together, then ask for the difference, not just the raw outputs.

Demand Checks

Ask for validation, missing-data checks, energy-balance checks, and a plain-language explanation of every warning.

Suggested Prompt for the Day:

"Before running SUEWS, summarise the focus-city inputs, identify the assumptions that matter most for scientific soundness, and tell me which ones need expert confirmation. Then run the baseline and +3 C stress-test cases, compare each neighbourhood, and keep a transcript of every modelling decision, warning, and correction."
07 / Citation

SUEWS Citation

This trial uses SUEWS/SuPy 2026.6.5. The final submission should cite the current software release and the core SUEWS papers.

Jarvi et al. (2011)The Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS): Evaluation in Los Angeles and Vancouver. Journal of Hydrology, 411(3-4), 219-237.
Ward et al. (2016)Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS): Development and evaluation at two UK sites. Urban Climate, 18, 1-32.